NL East Second Half Projections

Basebloggin’ has made an appearance at the 850 Blog, so I thought I would work on second half projections.

This will be changing as I find time to add info, but the main predictions for the Mets, Phillies and Braves are up, as well as my final standings. Again, I will be changing things but feel free to comment away. The content is after the jump.

Lots to comment on, but I’ll start with what I know best, the NL East. First up Philly, where the soon to be founders of the 10K loss club started out the year with what they felt were 6 solid to quite solid starters. Everyone in Philly assumed that around now Lieber would be traded for a reliever, and perhaps packaged with Bourne for Linebrink. Everyone also figured the Phils would be playing over 500 ball, which they aren’t. Oh, and Lieber is a turd. That great starting 6? Lieber, Myers and Garcia have all been lost from it. Throw in that another one of the 6 is Mark Eaton, and now you are down to 2. Name the one not named Cole Hamels, and AG will come wash your car (hint, he’s really, really old). If Gordon comes back strong, and they can move Myers back to the rotation, they can still have a shot at salvaging the season. Those are big ifs, mind you, and I think the Phils are better off with Myers as the closer and Gordon in his more comfortable role of setup man. They will need to add a starter somehow, however, if not two. Michael Bourne, by the way, doesn’t know how to hit a baseball. He can run like the wind, and plays great defensively, but at the plate he is dreadful. I’d actually take my chances with Patrick Burrelli…

On to the Mets. There is an unwritten rule in sports that says if you don’t take advantage of others playing poorly and separate your team from the pack, it will bite you in the ass. The Mets need to do a lot to prove that they are the class of the NL as originally expected. Beltran needs to prove that what he has done since becoming an Astro hasn’t been one giant fluke. Delgado has been dreadful. Left field? Do they even play anyone in left? Looks like Milledge will be the guy from here out, but he hasn’t even shown flashes of the talent he is supposed to be. Look for Maine to stop pitching way over his head, Glavine’s arm to get really, really tired, and Wagner to implode. Obviously, I’m not sold on the Mets. I don’t think Delgado turns it around, and I don’t think Beltran takes off the glasses and becomes Superman again.

That brings us to the Braves. It could be a really interesting couple of months for the boys in Atlanta. They need to add a starter, and really thats it. I think McCann will reemerge as the catcher of the future in the NL, and that Salty will firmly implant himself at first base. If Chipper can stay healthy, the Braves left side will be sitting pretty, and with Yunel Escobar ready to fill in anywhere Bobby needs him to, they have a nice little security blanket if he can’t. Kelly Johnson might not return to being the guy we enjoyed watching in April, but if he can continue to keep his OBP above .380 he might be good enough. I think Andruw Jones does turn it around. He may wind up only hitting .230 for the year, but he will wind up with 40 homers and 110 runs batted in. I think the bullpen will be fine, and will actually get better from here out, although they may need to add a lefty. I think Smoltz holds up fine, and Hudson continues to look like he did when he was wearing green and gold. Chuck James will be good enough to be a solid 3, and perhaps the best 3 in the NL East. Look for the Braves to add a starter, which will push James to the 4 and Davies to the 5. While both James and Davies have had their bad outings, seeing them as the 4 and 5 would not be a bad thing for most team. I just hope it doesn’t cost them too much to add said starter, and I seriously hope they don’t move Salty for Teixeira.

When it’s all said and done I think Atlanta reclaims the NL East crown. I think the Mets made a huge mistake by allowing the Braves to hang around as long as they have. I think the Phillies will be streaky from here out, with some good winning streaks. Unfortunately, they will also have some really bad streaks as well. The Mets starting rotations, while about to get a huge boost from Pedro, will eventually breakdown, which will put more pressure on an already struggling bullpen. Looks for Wagner to either implode or hurt himself, preferably in a non-baseball, humiliating fashion (if he gets hurt, I’d rather see him implode and I don’t wish anyone to get injured). What we do know for sure, is that two of these three teams are going to have to play phenomenal baseball for the wild card to come out of the East. Lets hope that two do, because any of these three can run with anyone else in the entire NL.

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