Carlos Carrasco entered this season as the “co” number one prospect in the Phillies’ farm system with Dominic Brown being the other “co” number one guy. Carrasco has seen his stock go down this season, as he has toiled away to a 5.18 this season, his first full season in AAA. While his strikeouts are still there, he does have 112 of them in 114.2 innings, so are the hits and walks, to the tune of a 1.36 WHIP. Carrasco, who is only 22 years old at this point, could still turn out to be a top line pitcher, but right now his cap is looking like a three in the rotation.
Jason Donald has recently been described as a future utility man in the Majors. For your fourth ranked prospect, you hope for a better fate than that, and the Phillies used to hope he would supplant Jimmy Rollins at short. Well, before this season even started those expectations had shifted towards the utility role, and after dude has raked to a .235 batting average this season you can guess where those expectations are at this point. Maybe Donald, who is 24 years old, can turn it around in the batters box, but in order to do so he will have to stop striking out so much (he has 58 Ks in 234 at-bats, which projects out to over 150 over a full season in the Bigs).
Jason Knapp is 6′5″ of raw talent. Dude can hit triple digits on the radar gun, has a decent changeup, a power slider and a breaking ball. Problem is Knapp can not seem to develop a consistent delivery, which causes him to change planes and lose his command. As things stand, Knapp is projected to be an overpowering set-up man in the Majors, and possibly a closer. He is young as well, though, at only 18 years of age, so there is time to refine his approach and develop him into a starter if he is durable enough.
Lou Marson was the catcher of the future for the Phillies. Through 63 games, the third ranked ranked prospect is hitting for a .294 average and a .751 OPS in AAA. During a brief stint in the Majors, he hit .235 with a .644 OPS. Like Donald, Marson has been missing too many pitches, as he does strikeout a bit too much. Will Marson be a top tier catcher in the Majors at some point? No one knows, but the 23 year old has talent to go with his professional approach.
Those are the prospects being sent to Cleveland. A probable utility man, a power bully, a future three in the rotation, and a catcher. Well, they are giving up something else as well, as someone is going to lose a starting rotation spot.
So in the end, what the Phillies gave up for Lee is hard to quantify. This entry will be added to the “featured posts” section for easy reference next year when we revisit this deal.
If you own Sherrill, look at Jim Johnson. No, Johnson is not setting the world on fire, but he is next in line for saves and does get a few strikeouts over time.
Downs? You obviously need to have him backed up with Jason Frasor. Frasor has bee a bit disappointing in the saves department, as he only has three on the season. Hell, he only has seven since the start of 2005 after nabbing 17 for the Blue Jays in 2004, but this season he is helping out in ERA and WHIP too.
Qualls? Jon Rauch is there for a reason, and that reason will become apparent if they move Qualls. Remember last year, when Rauch was the closer in DC before getting shipped out to Arizona? Yeah, he racked up 17 saves for the Nationals, and will rack up some for ‘Zona if they trade Qualls.
If Cordero gets moved things could be interesting. Dave Weathers is still there, and he is performing well once more. Also pitching well is Arthur Rhodes. Which of these old heads will get the nod? My bet is Weathers, but do not be shocked if Rhodes gets a look or they do a bullpen by committee.
In the Philadelphia version of the trade, the Phillies were to send Happ, Michael Taylor, Carlos Carrasco and Jason Donald all to Toronto. The Blue Jays declined the offer, which is about as good of an offer as I can see them getting.
Taylor, who entered the year as the sixth ranked prospect in the Phillies’ system, was promoted earlier this month to AAA Lehigh Valley, is very highly regarded by the Phillies right now, and could be called up in September when the rosters expand. After raking to a tune of a .333 batting average and 0.977 OPS in AA, Taylor has been having his issues in AAA. That being said, he just came off a six game hitting streak that has his average sitting at .263 for the Iron Pigs, with two homers in 38 at-bats. Hopefully the six game streak was a sign of things to come, and Taylor gets things going.
Carrasco, the Phillies second best prospect headed into the year, has had a rough season so far in AAA, as he is currently sporting a 5.18 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He is going to have to do much better than this if he wants to be the future #2 starter for the Phillies, but his 112:33 K:BB ratio shows that he still knows how to get strikeouts while keeping command of his pitches. That may not carry over to the Bigs, and it will be interesting to see if Carrasco gets a call in September himself. As things stand now, Carlos is not ready for the next level, but a 2010 arrival date should be expected.
Jason Donald started the season as the fourth ranked prospect for the Phils. Like Taylor, Donald struggled when he got to AAA. Unlike Taylor, however, Donald is no longer in AAA, but rather back at the Gulf Coast League, which is a rookie league. He is doing better since being demoted, but still not gaining any traction with his bat. Donald was heralded as the heir apparent to Jimmy Rollins, but his career is trending in the wrong direction for a 24 year old at this point.
All in all, a very solid offer for Halladay, and one I am surprised the Blue Jays turned down, but I can see the logic. If the Phillies are going to get a current Major League ace like Roy Halladay, they are going to have to part ways with their best pitching prospect. While that may have been Carrasco back in March, it is now clearly Kyle Drabek, who the Phillies have allegedly labeled as untouchable. Personally, I do not see how the Phillies can expect Toronto to give up Halladay and not get the best pitching prospect from the team they send him to. You have to give up something to get something, especially when that something is the arguable front runner for the AL Cy Young award.
Also hitting the Prior List is Toronto Blue Jays closer Scott Downs with a sprained big toe. Taking his place in the 9th should be Jason Frasor, who is a must grab and should be owned anyway (he was only owned in 25% of Yahoo leagues as of this morning). Also landing on the Prior List is Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay, also of the 15 day variety. Halladay’s stint is retroactive to the 13th, and he has been diagnosed with a mild groin strain.
Keeping with the theme, Erik Bedard hit the Prior List dated back to 8th with inflammation in his left shoulder. He is going to visit with Dr. Andrews, which is about the worst news we could give you. When more is known, we will pass it along.
Hat tip to RotoWorld.com for these Prior List updates.
]]>The Sports Idiot: Aaron Hill is batting .360 with an OPS of .956. He has six bombs to go with his 22 RBIs and 21 Runs. Did I mention he also has two stolen bases? No? Well, he has two stolen bases as well. What’s not to like?
Roto Rebel: What’s not to like is his seven-year professional career! Sure, he’s off to a hot start this season, but the list of mediocre players who have had a good month is endless. Hill’s career high in HR (at any level) is 17…and that was his highest total by far. And he’s never swiped more than five bags in a year. As his .289 career batting average indicates, he can definitely hit…and he will provide runs as well, but I highly doubt that he will maintain the power and speed numbers (at least not without some help from BALCO).
SI: Hard to argue with the past (other than he has only been in the majors five years), but it’s all about what he can do for me today! Over his last ten games he has multiple hits five times, 14 hits overall. Discounting his injury shortened season from a year ago, he has increased his OPS, runs scored, and RBIs each season. He’s only 27, so this could be signs of everything clicking for him, and it could be an indication of what the future will hold.
RR: Might he have a career year? Sure. I just don’t see him jacking 25 homers and stealing 15 bases. Even 15 HR and 8 SB would be a pleasant surprise. Combine that with a .290 AVG and 85 runs or so, and that’s acceptable production from your 2B slot. However, I think he is overvalued at the moment and therefore makes a decent sell-high candidate…especially if you can get a guy like B.J. Upton for him, as one Roto Rebel reader was considering.
SI: B.J. Upton is an entirely different discussion, now that he is not eligible at second anymore, so I’ll leave that alone for now. Career year? Sure, but if he does have said career year, don’t you want to have him on your roster for it? I do not see him knocking 25 balls over the fence either, but I do think the high teens is possible. He does not steal many bases, so you have me there. His average, however, is showing no signs of slowing down. He could very well hit in the .330’s this season with an OPS over .800, 90+runs and 90+RBIs. Does that sound like someone you might be interested in?
RR: No way he hits .330. That would be a 40-point jump from his career best. And he’ll be closer to 75 RBI than 90 batting out of the No. 2 hole. Would I want him on my team? Not when I have Ian Kinsler! (Remember, my draft strategy was SS, 2B, C, C in the first four rounds.) By the way, where is all of your Hill love rooted? Do you have a cousin who went to LSU with him or something?
SI: It’s because he looks like a young Arod in the face, and you know how my heart melts for Arod. Alright, we’ll mark down our projections and see what happens. My main point is that he is raking and showing no signs of slowing down. He’s been in the league for a few years, so there is no curve for pitchers to figure him out, rather he may be showing that he has figured something out himself. You are probably correct with the RBIs, but he already has 22 of them on the year. That being said, with the offensive numbers being put up by Kinsler, Hill, Utley, Weeks, Cano and Hudson it is looking like 2B might be deeper than expected this year. Especially when you factor in that Phillips is doing nothing.
RR: Speaking of Phillips, there’s another buy-low target! All right, whoever ends up being wrong has to add a link to the David Archuleta fan club to his blog.
SI: I’ll go one further. I’ll set my header image to a picture of your choosing if I am further off than you. You say .290, right? I say .330. So if he hits .311 or better I win?
RR: Deal!
So what do you guys think?
“I’m not a huge velocity guy. Once I toned down my mechanics (early in his career) I was never a guy who threw 95. I’m a guy who pitched from deception and location.
“That’s what I’m more concerned about. The velocity thing is going to come. It’s going the right way now. (Yesterday) was a crummy result but from what I was looking to do, it’s better.”
If you have Ryan on your roster, handcuff him with Downs. If you don’t have Ryan, grab Downs and try to screw the guy who does.
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